Working Papers

19-22 — Information-Theoretic Approach for Forecasting Interval-Valued SP500 Daily Returns
T.S. Tuang Buansing, Amos Golan, Aman Ullah. November 2019.

19-21 — Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Yun Luo, Esther Ruiz. October 2019.

19-20 — Nonparametric Estimation of Marginal Effects in Regression-spline Random Effects Models
Aman Ullah, Shujie Ma, Jeffrey Racine. September 2019.

19-19 — Testing for Attrition Bias in Field Experiments
Sarojini Hirshleifer, Dalia Ghanem, Karen Ortiz-Becerra. August 2019.

19-18 — Bootstrap Aggregating and Random Forest
Tae-Hwy Lee, Aman Ullah, Ran Wang. July 2019.

19-17 — Boosting
Tae-Hwy Lee, Jianghao Chu, Aman Ullah, Ran Wang. May 2019.

19-16 — Indeterminacy with Increasing Returns to Variety and Sector-Specific Externalities
Jang-Ting Guo, Juin-Jen Chang, Wei-Neng Wang. May 2019.

19-15 — Combined Estimation of Semiparametric Panel Data Models
Tae-Hwy Lee, Bai Huang, Aman Ullah. May 2019.

19-14 — Identification and Estimation of Nonparametric Hedonic Equilibrium Model with Unobserved Quality
Ruoyao Shi. February 2019.

19-13 — Progressive Taxation, Nominal Wage Rigidity, and Business Cycle Destabilization
Jang-Ting Guo, Miroslav Gabrovski. February 2019.

19-12 — What Time Use Surveys Can (And Cannot) Tell Us about Labor Supply
Ruoyao Shi, Cheng Chou. February 2019.

19-11 — The Cyclical Behavior of the Beveridge Curve in the Housing Market
Victor Ortego-Marti, Miroslav Gabrovski. January 2019.

19-10 — The Second-order Asymptotic Properties of Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation
Tae-Hwy Lee, Aman Ullah, He Wang. January 2019.

19-09 — Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yundong Tu. January 2019.

19-08 — Variable Selection in Sparse Semiparametric Single Index Models
Tae-Hwy Lee, Jianghao Chu, Aman Ullah. January 2019.

19-07 — Component-wise AdaBoost Algorithms for High-dimensional Binary Classi fication and Class Probability Prediction
Tae-Hwy Lee, Jianghao Chu, Aman Ullah. January 2019.

19-06 — A Combined Random Effect and Fixed Effect Forecast for Panel Data Models
Tae-Hwy Lee, Bai Huang, Aman Ullah. January 2019.

19-05 — Stein-like Shrinkage Estimation of Panel Data Models with Common Correlated Effects
Tae-Hwy Lee, Bai Huang, Aman Ullah. January 2019.

19-04 — Evaluation of the Survey of Professional Forecasters in the Greenbook's Loss Function
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yiyao Wang. January 2019.

19-03 — Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation
Tae-Hwy Lee, Eric Hillebrand, Huiyu Huang, Canlin Li. January 2019.

19-02 — A Combined Estimator of Regression Models with Measurement Errors
Tae-Hwy Lee, Bai Huang, Aman Ullah. January 2019.

19-01 — Nonparametric Estimation of the Marginal Effect in Fixed-Effect Panel Data Models
Aman Ullah, Yoonseok Lee, Debasri Mukherjee. January 2019.

18-17 — Prediction Regions for Interval-valued Time Series
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Yun Luo, Esther Ruiz. October 2018.

18-16 — Search and Credit Frictions in the Housing Market
Victor Ortego-Marti, Miroslav Gabrovski. September 2018.

18-15 — A Matter of Time: An Impact Evaluation of the Brazilian National Land Credit Program
Steven Helfand, Vilma Sielawa, Deepak Singhania. September 2018.

18-14 — No Impact of Rural Development Policies? No Synergies with Conditional Cash Transfers? An Investigation of the IFAD-Supported Gavião Project in Brazil
Steven Helfand, Lorena Viera Costa, André Portela Souza. September 2018.

18-13 — Employment and Output Effects of Federal Regulations on Small Business
Jang-Ting Guo, Dustin Chambers. September 2018.

18-12 — Age-Profile Estimates of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Child Health
Joseph Cummins, Anaka Aiyar. August 2018.

18-11 — The Inverse Relationship between Farm Size and Productivity: Refocusing the Debate
Steven Helfand, Matthew Taylor. July 2018.

18-10 — Tax Evasion and Financial Development under Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets
Jang-Ting Guo, Fu-Sheng Hung. May 2018.

18-09 — Is Higher Quality Land Developed Earlier?
Richard Arnott, Lopez Juan Carlos. April 2018.

18-08 — Moral Hazard with Non-Additive Uncertainty: When are Actions Implementable?
Urmee Khan, Martin Dumav. April 2018.

18-07 — Optimal Legal Moments and Stabilization Rules
Urmee Khan, Frank Fagan. April 2018.

18-06 — Moral Hazard, Uncertain Technologies, and Linear Contracts
Urmee Khan, Martin Dumav. April 2018.

18-05 — Growth in Stress
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Esther Ruiz, Javier Vicente. April 2018.

18-04 — Housing Market Dynamics with Search Frictions
Victor Ortego-Marti, Miroslav Gabrovski. March 2018.

18-03 — An Averaging GMM Estimator Robust to Misspecification
Ruoyao Shi, Zhipeng Liao. January 2018.

18-02 — Synthetic Control and Inference
Ruoyao Shi, Jinyong Hahn. January 2018.

18-01 — Extreme Returns and Intensity of Trading
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Wei Lin. January 2018.

17-11 — Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries
Urmee Khan, Robert Lieli. October 2017.

17-10 — Age-Profile Estimates of the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Child Health
Joseph Cummins, Anaka Aiyar. October 2017.

17-09 — A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing. Implications for VIX Forecast Densities
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Joao Henrique Mazzeu, Esther Ruiz, Helena Veiga. September 2017.

17-08 — The Credibility of Commitment and Optimal Nonlinear Savings Taxation
Jang-Ting Guo, Alan Krause. September 2017.

17-07 — Differences in Skill Loss During Unemployment Across Industries and Occupations.
Victor Ortego-Marti. July 2017.

17-06 — Does Gerrymandering Violate the Fourteenth Amendment? Insight from the Median Voter Theorem
Craig McLaren. July 2017.

17-05 — Asymmetric Stabilizing Impact of International Reserves
Dongwon Lee, Kyungkeun Kim. May 2017.

17-04 — Macroeconomic Stability under Balanced-Budget Rules and No-Income-Effect Preferences
Jang-Ting Guo, Yan Zhang. April 2017.

17-03 — Month of Birth and Child Height in 40 Countries
Joseph Cummins, Neha Agarwal, Anaka Aiyar, Arpita Bhattacharjee, Christian Gunadi, Deepak Singhania, Matthew Taylor, Evan Wigton-Jones. March 2017.

17-02 — Sectoral Composition of Government Spending, Distortionary Income Taxation, and Macroeconomic (In)stabilit
Jang-Ting Guo, Juin-Jen Chang, Jhy-Yuan Shieh, Wei-Neng Wang. February 2017.

17-01 — Incentives for Effort or Outputs? A Field Experiment to Improve Student Performance
Sarojini Hirshleifer. January 2017.

16-16 — Public and Private Learning in the Market for Teachers: Evidence from the Adoption of Value-Added Measures
Michael Bates. December 2016.

16-15 — Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in the Low Track: Revisiting the Kenyan Primary School Experiment
Joseph Cummins. November 2016.

16-14 — A Comprehensive Approach to Revealed Preference Theory
Hiroki Nishimura, Efe A. Ok, John K.-H. Quah. October 2016.

16-13 — Dynamic Model of the Individual Consumer
Craig McLaren. September 2016.

16-12 — A Model of Rush-Hour Traffic Dynamics in an Isotropic Downtown Area
Richard Arnott, Anatolii Kokoza, Mehdi Naji. August 2016.

16-11 — Cruising for Parking around a Circle
Richard Arnott, Parker Williams. July 2016.

16-10 — Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries
Urmee Khan, Robert Lieli. May 2016.

16-09 — State-dependent Preferences in Prediction Markets and Prices as Aggregate Statistic
Urmee Khan. May 2016.

16-08 — Planning for the Long Run: Programming with Patient, Pareto Responsive Preferences
Urmee Khan, Maxwell B Stinchcombe. May 2016.

16-07 — Extreme Returns and Intensity of Trading
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Wei Lin. April 2016.

16-06 — Density Forecast Evaluation in Unstable Environments
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Yingying Sun. April 2016.

16-05 — Global Risk and International Equity Portfolio Rebalancing
Dongwon Lee, Kyungkeun Kim. March 2016.

16-04 — On Indeterminacy and Growth under Progressive Taxation and Utility-Generating Government Spending
Jang-Ting Guo, Shu-Hua Chen. March 2016.

16-03 — Confidence, Fear and a Propensity to Gamble: The Puzzle of War and Economics in an Age of Catastrophe 1914-45
Roger L. Ransom. February 2016.

16-02 — The One-Percent across Two Centuries: A Replication of Thomas Piketty’s Data on the Distribution of Wealth for the United States
Richard C. Sutch. January 2016.

16-01 — The Accumulation, Inheritance, and Concentration of Wealth during the Gilded Age: An Exception to Thomas Piketty’s Analysis
Richard C. Sutch. January 2016.

15-13 — Loss of Skill during Unemployment and TFP Differences across Countries
Victor Ortego-Marti. December 2015.

15-12 — Changing Social Preferences and Optimal Redistributive Taxation
Jang-Ting Guo, Alan Krause. November 2015.

15-11 — A Model of Rush-Hour Traffic in an Isotropic Downtown Area
Richard Arnott, Anatolii Kokoza, Mehdi Naji. July 2015.

15-10 — Progressive Taxation as an Automatic Destabilizer under Endogenous Growth
Jang-Ting Guo, Shu-Hua Chen. July 2015.

15-09 — Progressive Taxation, Endogenous Growth, and Macroeconomic (In)stability
Jang-Ting Guo, Shu-Hua Chen. July 2015.

15-08 — Existence and Stability of Dynamic Exchange Equilibria
Craig McLaren. July 2015.

15-07 — Dynamic Model of the Individual Consumer
Craig McLaren. July 2015.

15-06 — The Aggregate Value of Land in the Greater Los Angeles Region
Richard Arnott, Huiling Zhang. June 2015.

15-05 — Interval-valued Time Series Models: Estimation based on Order Statistics. Exploring the Agriculture Marketing Service Data
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Wei Lin. May 2015.

15-04 — The Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Vacancies with Loss of Skills during Unemployment
Victor Ortego-Marti. February 2015.

15-03 — Finding SPF Percentiles Closest to Greenbook
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yiyao Wang. February 2015.

15-02 — Resource Misallocation and Aggregate Productivity under Progressive Taxation
Jang-Ting Guo, Yutaro Izumi, Yi-Chan Tsai. February 2015.

15-01 — Grouped Model Averaging for Finite Sample Size
Aman Ullah, Xinyu Zhang. February 2015.

14-40 — Baby Boomlets and Baby Health: Hospital Crowdedness, Treatment Intensity, and Infant Health
Mindy Marks, Kate Choi. November 2014.

14-39 — What are the long run effects of nurse occupational licensure?
Mindy Marks, Marc Law. November 2014.

14-38 — Forecasting with Interval and Histogram Data. Some Financial Applications
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Javier Arroyo, Carlos Mate. November 2014.

14-37 — Economic Development and the Determinants of Spatial Integration in Agricultural Markets
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Steven Helfand. November 2014.

14-36 — Multivariate Autocontours for Specification Testing in Multivariate GARCH Models
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Emre Yoldas. November 2014.

14-35 — A Predictive Model for HIV-1 Co-receptor Selectivity
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Chris Kieslich, David Shin, Aliana Lopez de Victoria, Dimitrios Morikis. November 2014.

14-34 — An Impact Analysis of Tribal Government Gaming in California
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Anil Deolalikar, Martin Johnson, Mindy Marks, Joel Martin. October 2014.

14-33 — Smoothing Methods for Histogram-valued Time Series. An Application to Value-at-Risk
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Javier Arroyo, Carlos Mate, A. Munoz San Roque. October 2014.

14-32 — Forecasting for Economics and Business
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera. October 2014.

14-31 — Generalized Autocontours: Evaluation of Multivariate Density Models
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Yingying Sun. October 2014.

14-30 — Predicting Rare Events: Evaluating Systemic and Idiosyncratic Risk (editorial)
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera. October 2014.

14-29 — Interval-valued Time Series: Model Estimation based on Order Statistics
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Wei Lin. October 2014.

14-28 — Density Forecast Evaluation in Unstable Environments
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, Yingying Sun. October 2014.

14-27 — Patient Preferences, Intergenerational Equity, and the Precautionary Principle
Urmee Khan, Maxwell Stinchcombe. September 2014.

14-26 — Information Processing in Prediction Markets: An Empirical Investigation
Urmee Khan, Robert Lieli. September 2014.

14-25 — The Virtues of Hesitation
Urmee Khan, Maxwell Stinchcombe. September 2014.

14-24 — Progressive Taxation, Endogenous Growth, and Macroeconomic (In)stability
Jang-Ting Guo, Shu-Hua Chen. September 2014.

14-23 — Money-Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles
Tae-Hwy Lee, Weiping Yang. September 2014.

14-22 — Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity Using Regularized Artificial Neural Networks
Tae-Hwy Lee, Zhou Xi, Ru Zhang. September 2014.

14-21 — Bagging Constrained Equity Premium Predictors
Tae-Hwy Lee, Eric Hillebrand, Marcelo Medeiros. September 2014.

14-20 — What Makes a Commodity Currency?
Dongwon Lee, Yu-chin Chen. September 2014.

14-19 — The Transitive Core: Inference of Welfare from Nontransitive Preference Relations
Hiroki Nishimura. September 2014.

14-18 — A Unified Approach to Revealed Preference Theory: The Case of Rational Choice
Hiroki Nishimura, Efe A. Ok, John K.-H. Quah. September 2014.

14-17 — On the Use and Misuse of Child Height-for-Age Z-score in the Demographic and Health Surveys
Joseph Cummins. September 2014.

14-16 — The Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Vacancies with Loss of Skills during Unemployment
Victor Ortego-Marti. September 2014.

14-15 — Dynamic Nonlinear Income Taxation with Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting and No Commitment
Jang-Ting Guo, Alan Krause. September 2014.

14-14 — News about Aggregate Demand and the Business Cycle
Jang-Ting Guo, Anca-Ioana Sirbu, Mark Weder. September 2014.

14-13 — Exact Distribution of the Mean Reversion Estimator in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process
Aman Ullah, Yong Bao, Yun Wang. September 2014.

14-12 — A Semiparametric Generalized Ridge Estimator and Link with Model Averaging
Aman Ullah, Alan T.K. Wan, Huansha Wang, Xinyu Zhang, Guohua Zou. September 2014.

14-11 — Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity Using Artificial Neural Networks with Many Randomized Hidden Unit Activations
Tae-Hwy Lee, Zhou Xi, Ru Zhang. September 2014.

14-10 — Forecasting Realized Volatility Using Subsample Averaging
Tae-Hwy Lee, Huiyu Huang. September 2014.

14-09 — Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High Frequency Information
Tae-Hwy Lee, Huiyu Huang. September 2014.

14-08 — A Semiparametric Conditional Duration Model
Aman Ullah, Mardi Dungey, Xiangdong Long, Yun Wang. September 2014.

14-07 — Asymmetric Loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yiyao Wang. September 2014.

14-06 — Granger-Causality in Quantiles between Financial Markets: Using Copula Approach
Tae-Hwy Lee, Weiping Yang. September 2014.

14-05 — Forecasting Equity Premium: Global Historical Average versus Local Historical Average and Constraints
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yundong Tu, Aman Ullah. September 2014.

14-04 — Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions Subject to Monotonicity Constraints: Estimation and Forecasting
Tae-Hwy Lee, Yundong Tu, Aman Ullah. September 2014.

14-03 — Indeterminacy with Progressive Taxation and Sector-Specific Externalities
Jang-Ting Guo, Sharon G. Harrison. September 2014.

14-02 — Unemployment History and Frictional Wage Dispersion
Victor Ortego-Marti. September 2014.

14-01 — Moment Approximation for Unit Root Models with Nonnormal Errors
Aman Ullah, Yong Bao, Ru Zhang. September 2014.